Monday, March 12, 2018

The parade of storms continues for the east coast

Montreal will be on the western edge of another coastal storm this week. Snow may accumulate 10 to 20cm over a 48-hour period starting Tuesday.
The third Nor'easter in the last ten days is poised to take aim at New England this week. Low pressure is expected to develop off the Carolina coast on Monday, and rapidly deepen as it moves east of Cape Cod on Tuesday. Following a track very similar to the previous storms, the bulk of the snow is expected to fall across southern and eastern New England, southeastern Quebec and portions of Atlantic Canada. Strong winds and pounding surf are forecast for the same regions that are still trying to restore power and repair coastal infrastructure. As far as snow goes, 20 to 40cm (8 to 16 inches) is likely, across the far Eastern Townships south and east into New England.

Long-duration snowfall for Montreal
Once again, the current track keeps Montreal and eastern Ontario on the western periphery of the heaviest precipitation. However, this time, an upper-level low over the Great Lakes will draw moisture from the coastal storm into southern Quebec starting Tuesday. A long-duration snow event is expected, with periods of light snow lasting into Thursday. This is a very complicated setup, and combined with the warming March sun, makes amounts difficult to predict for Montreal. For example, I anticipated more snow last week, but the heaviest amounts remained east of the city. What did fall melted very quickly. If I had to estimate accumulations at this time, they would fall into the 10 to 20cm (4 to 8 inches) range for southern Quebec. As with last week, given temperatures near the freezing point, this may be generous. We will have to keep a close eye on the exact track of the storm and how quickly cooler air is pulled in behind the storm this week. This forecast is subject to major adjustments... stay tuned!

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