Thursday, October 31, 2013

High Wind Warnings

High wind warnings have been posted for the entire region including metro Montreal, the St. Lawrence Valley, Eastern Ontario and northern New England & NY. Winds ahead of a strong cold front and strengthening fall storm will increase out of the southwest to 100km/h (60 mph) in gusts on Friday. Winds of this strength could cause damage as well as power outages. Rain continues this Halloween night with 14mm so far today on L'Ile Perrot. More showers tonight and Friday with warm air pouring into the region. Highs could reach 16C Friday. Colder air will rapidly move in behind the storm over the weekend with flurries possible.

Scarey Halloween forecast

The 2013 World Series Champion Boston Red Sox celebrate last night along with all of us across Red Sox Nation.
First of all this morning, thank you, thank you, thank you to the Boston Red Sox. What a run from last to first. After not having won a World Series title since 1918, they have now won three since 2004. I am glad they took this time to shake off the curse. What a thrilling team to watch this year, the cardiac kids, never say die, from last in 2012 to champs in 2013.

It is not shaping up to be a great forecast for Montreal and most of us here in the east for Halloween tonight. Strong low pressure has moved from the central plains towards the Great Lakes while intensifying. This storm will lift a warm front across Montreal and southern Quebec tonight with lots of showers and rain likely. It won`t be a washout but it will be wet most of the time. The rain should get going by noon today. The only good news is that is will be much milder, close to 12C today and strengthening southwest winds. It will remain mild tonight and downright warm on Friday, as the warm front clears the region. Temperatures will rise to nearly 16C (61F) on Friday. As this storm strengthens to a 972mb low, it will move across the Ottawa Valley, with a strong cold front trailing behind. Winds on Friday will increase to strong across the St. Lawrence Valley with gusts likely to 100km/h. Wind Warnings have been issued along the US side of the Valley, and I expect they will be moved north and east into Montreal and our southwest regions. After a mild and windy Friday the weekend looks much cooler with showers and perhaps a few flurries by late Saturday behind the storm.

Remember to put your clocks back 1 hour on Saturday night.
Happy safe.

Boston Strong!

Monday, October 28, 2013

Coldest night of the season

Snow and cold greeted Calgary on Sunday after highs of nearly 20C on Friday. Over 10cm of snow fell on southern Alberta. (CTV)
The growing season will come to an end tonight as the coldest air mass of the fall settles into Ontario and Quebec. L'Ile Perrot this morning is wet with showers around and chilly 5C temperatures.Out west temperatures are as cold as -10C in Alberta and Saskatchewan with snow on the ground. Over the weekend a strong storm moved from Alberta into Montana with an area of heavy snow. Over 20cm was reported in Bow Valley with as much as 10cm in Calgary. This storm is diving south into the US plains with snow and cold temperatures. Some of that cold air will filter into our regions tonight after some showers and windy conditions today. Look for lows to be as cold as -5C in Montreal, but all the way below -10C in the Laurentians and Townships.

Skies will be clear tonight but clouds will be on the increase late Tuesday and Wednesday as that US storm starts to move northeast towards the Great Lakes. It will push an area of showers and much milder air into the region by Halloween. At this time Halloween looks wet but warm in Montreal for tricks and treats. I am hopeful the heaviest of the rain will hold off until after the kids return home. Temperatures will be near or above 10C (50F) on Halloween night.

It also snowed in the east this weekend with the observers at the Mount Washington Observatory in New Hampshire sending out a clear message to all.

Saturday, October 26, 2013

Cold - rainy weekend for Montreal

Low pressure is moving from Lake Superior across Ontario and into southern Quebec today. In advance of the system cold rain and snow showers have overspread the region this morning. It is very chilly and raw here on L'Ile Perrot with about 1mm of rain since 7am. Current temperatures are 4C (39F) at my home. You don't have to go far north to have snow falling. Transport Quebec traffic cameras from the Laurentian Autoroute as close as St. Jerome show snow accumulating on the roadsides. Some areas of southern Quebec may see as much as 10cm of wet snow today. The system is also expected to produce strong winds later today. Winds will be 40-70km/h with gusts as high as 90km/h along the shores of Lake Ontario. Wind warnings have been posted on both the Canadian and US shores. Temperatures today will do no better than 6C (43F) in Montreal. Tonight the precipitation will continue with a windy and cold overnight low of 5C (41F). Montreal will stay at 5C on Sunday with more showers.

As with the last storm that came across the Great Lakes this past Thursday, some regions will see lake effect snow once again later tonight and on Sunday. On Thursday, 10-15cm of wet snow fell in places like Barrie, and Flesherton, Ontario (photos above & below) with roads snow covered and icy. Snow also fell in Ohio and western New York. As I have already said this week, now is the time to get ready.

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Cold & unsettled for Montreal

Beautiful Fleming Mill on the shores of the St. Lawrence River in LaSalle on Wednesday. (ValleyWX Pic) 

Cold air is well established in Ontario and Quebec this morning with -1C (30F) here on L'Ile Perrot with a general frost. Frost and below freezing temperatures are widespread across southern Ontario and Quebec including -3C in Ottawa. Some icy spots are being reported on bridges and elevated surfaces so begin to sharpen those winter driving skills.

As always my snow tires went on yesterday, before Halloween. During the fall of 1992 I was working for the Gazette in Lorraine north of Montreal, and got caught in a November 1 snowstorm with the wrong tires. It was terrible and since that day I always put them on before Halloween. Actually most experts will tell you that under 7C (45F), regular tires begin to lose grip. So snow or not it is a good idea to start thinking about the change. Of course you do not have to have them installed until December 15 by law, but that to me is ridiculously late.

Some early snow tire customers including my Saturn (in stall 1) at Gordons Goodyear on Cavendish and St. Jacques Wednesday morning. Time to do it and avoid the rush.

Speaking of snow, several centimetres of lake effect snow has fallen across the lee of Georgian Bay near Barrie this morning. Some icy spots on bridges and roads are causing isolated travel issues. The precipitation should change over to showers later this morning. The weather in Montreal will remain unsettled and cold right up to Halloween. A series of fronts will deliver lots of clouds with occasional showers starting late this afternoon and lasting well into early next week. Temperatures will be cold with highs of around 7C (45F) and lows near 0C. It will be even colder next week with overnight lows below freezing for Montreal. Some snowflakes are even likely in the lower elevations with perhaps a coating to a few centimetres in the mountains of the Townships, Vermont and New York.

Monday, October 21, 2013

Colder weather with a snowflake or two by weeks end

A warmer and windy Monday is on tap for Montreal and the St. Lawrence Valley as a warm front slowly lifts from southern Ontario into southern Quebec today. We start the day on the cold side at 2C (36F) here on L'Ile Perrot. There was even some spotty frost overnight. As the front comes north freezing drizzle is being reported in the Adirondacks of New York, certainly a sign of things to come.

The warm front comes into Montreal mid morning, with clouds rapidly increase along with showers. Gusty southwest winds are also likely later today. Tonight a cold front will bring more showers along with much colder air. After a high of 15C (60F) today, perhaps our last warm day for some time, lows will drop to 10C (50F) tonight. On Tuesday temperatures will remain steady or even fall a degree or two. The balance of the week looks unsettled with showers and perhaps snow flurries, windy and much colder with lows near freezing and high around 7C (45F).

Friday, October 18, 2013

Partial clearing for a partial lunar eclipse

It has been slowly cooling down this week with temperatures finally acting like October. Add to that about 17mm of rain in the last day or so and it actually feels like fall. It appears at least for the short term that we have turned the corner with much cooler weather now expected into next week. As a matter of fact looking ahead into early November it looks like much below normal temperatures with perhaps some snowflakes by Halloween, but that is way out there. To start with this morning, we have rain ending followed by partial clearing here in Montreal and across the St. Lawrence Valley. That should allow us to view the partial lunar eclipse of the full Hunter moon this evening. The eclipse will peak around 7:50 ET and last several hours. It will only be partial but still worth a peek. Temperatures today will remain where they are currently around 11 or 12C, dropping to 9C tonight.

What to expect tonight as the full Hunter moon, earth and sun get tangled in each others path, at least partially.
Looking ahead into the weekend more showers should develop by Saturday afternoon as low pressure arrives from the Great Lakes. The showers and cooler weather will start Sunday and last well into next week. Highs this weekend will be in the 12 to 15C range with lows of 7 to 9C, By early next week high temperatures will struggle to reach 8 or 9C.

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Colder weather on the horizon for Montreal

A ghostly reminder that despite the warm sunshine this weekend, it is October and the days are getting shorter and cooler. Halloween is just around the corner followed by you know what! (ValleyWX)
Most of eastern Ontario and southern Quebec have been enjoying a near perfect fall weather with abundant sunshine and many days of above normal temperatures. This past holiday weekend felt more like late August than October. Highs were in the low 20's with very warm nights in the teens. A front crossed the region on Monday with some light showers, just a few millimetres of rain on L'Ile Perrot and with no apparent change in temperatures. This morning it is still mild at 12C with lots of fog around. A dense fog advisory is in effect for most of northern New York and Vermont with visibility under 1 mile (1.6km). If you are heading off island to the south of Montreal be aware of this fog, which should burn off by 10am or so. Otherwise look for one more sunny warm day before changes begin. A major pattern change is anticipated between now and months end with much cooler and wet weather on the way. The showers will arrive on Wednesday and be with us for the remainder of the week. The cooler air will arrive be the weekend.

Forecast models are hinting at a very cold end to October and start to November for most of the country. Snow is even possible across the Prairies with a hint of some snowflakes by the 10th of November here in the east. Time will tell, until then enjoy the weather and get your winter plans firmed up. My snow tires go on as always next week.

Thursday, October 10, 2013

Perfect Thanksgiving Weekend for Montreal

More incredible fall weather is forecast for Montreal and southern Quebec heading into the upcoming holiday weekend. It is chilly to start this morning, 5C (41F) here on L'Ile Perrot, but the sunshine will warm temperatures to well above normal highs of 20C. That sunshine will be with us right into the weekend as strong high pressure remains anchored over Quebec. Along with the sun will be well above normal highs of 19 to 21C.
Coastal flooding affected portions of Virginia and North Carolina on Wednesday, including the above picture from Norfolk. (The Virginia-Pilot)
A nasty coastal storm is affecting portions of the Carolina's north towards southern New England. Strong winds, coastal flooding and heavy rain is forecast from New York to Norfolk. Yesterday nearly a foot of rain fell on Hatteras Island, North Carolina. Along with the freshwater flooding, high surf  and ocean overwash occurred along Highway 12 and flooded parts of the Island. Winds gusting to 50mph caused sporadic power outages from Maryland to North Carolina. That system will not affect southern Quebec with the exception of a gusty northeast wind later Friday.

Tuesday, October 08, 2013

Strong winds disrupt power in Montreal

High winds toppled power lines and trees in southern Quebec on Monday.
 (CBC News)
Strong winds helped push temperatures soar to 24C (76F) in Montreal on Monday with even some low 80's creeping into the border areas with Vermont and New York. The front also brought some potent showers and thunderstorms along with strong and gusty winds. Winds were in the 70-90km/h range most of the day and have since lowered to 20-40km/h this morning. The wind took out some trees and power lines, especially south of Montreal. Hydro Quebec is reporting about 7000 customer still without power across the province this morning down from around 32,000 on Monday evening. Power outages were also reported across northern New England and eastern Ontario. As the front passed through Montreal at 3pm, around 15mm of rain fell on the city. Unfortunately it occurred during the evening commute making it a slow and difficult one. Other regions of southern Quebec had as much as 25-30mm of rain along the frontal passage. Temperatures dropped rapidly behind the front from 24C (76F) down to 16C (60F) in a matter of minutes. This morning L'Ile Perrot is a chilly 6C (43F) with Ottawa down to 3C (38F).

A spectacular double rainbow appeared behind the cold front late Monday afternoon, visible across most of the island of Montreal. (ValleyWX Photo)
The good news is that our tremendous stretch of fall weather will continue with nothing but sunshine and warming temperatures right into the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday weekend. For the record Montreal has had rain on only four of the last 21 days, remarkable at anytime of the year but especially during typically wet fall.

Sunday, October 06, 2013

Finally some moisture for Montreal - incredible South Dakota snow

Streets in Rapid City, South Dakota clogged with snow. (CNN)
Rain finally moved into Montreal this afternoon, 14 days after the last measurable precipitation. Around 7mm fell on L'Ile Perrot, it has since ended with the showers moving off to the northeast as a warm front crossed the region. Temperatures will rise to 23C by midday Monday, well above the normal October 7 high of 14C. The afternoon will feature a strong cold front trailing from the same system the brought South Dakota its massive snowstorm Friday. This front will produce heavy rain and thunderstorms in southern Quebec, along with winds gusting to 70km/h in the afternoon. Rainfall along the front could be significant with up to 40mm possible in some locations. Temperatures will cool to 7C Monday night behind the front. Tuesday will be windy and cooler with highs near 15C.
Several tornadoes including this one in Nebraska, occurred on the warm side of the storm.
Friday's snowstorm across the plains of South Dakota and Wyoming was legendary with several snow rerecords being smashed. The Black Hills received as much as 50 inches of heavy wet snow accompanied by 70 mph winds. The storm was big by any standards but especially for October. Drifts piled up the sides of many buildings while trees and power lines were down across the region. Highways were jammed with stranded motorists, several had to be rescued by snowmobile. The snow was accompanied by thunder and lightning in Rapid City and Lead. Meanwhile on the warm side of the system, strong thunderstorms and tornadoes raced across Nebraska with an F-4 tornado reported in Wayne. Damage was extensive across the region. Flooding is now a concern in South Dakota as the record snowfall begins to melt.

Friday, October 04, 2013

Tropical Storm Karen heads for Florida - Blizzard in Dakotas

Tropical storm Karen (lower center of image) and a blizzard (upper left) on the map at the same time. You have to love October. 
Two very distinct weather features are on this mornings map, a blizzard over the Dakotas and a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico all at the same time. Both will have an impact on our weather by Monday, finally bringing an end to this stretch of incredible sunshine and warmth. We managed another sunny day on Thursday with temperatures in the low 20's. Today clouds and a few sprinkles along a very weak cold front this morning, but otherwise partly cloudy, mild and dry through Saturday.

Meanwhile Tropical Storm Karen has prompted warnings for the central Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida this morning with the center about 300 miles from the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum winds are at 60mph and some strengthening is possible before landfall late Saturday, likely in the Florida panhandle. Karen will produce a 3-5 foot storm surge along with 4 to 8 inches or rain. This system will then move inland towards the Carolina's and become absorbed by a larger storm that is affecting the northern plains and Rockies this morning. A record breaking snowstorm is forecast for the Black Hills of South Dakota with one to two feet of snow and 40-70mph winds possible over the next 24 hours. It is already down to 32F and snowing at the Black Hills Airport near Sturgis this morning.

This large upper level low will spin into the Great Lakes by Sunday, tapping into the Gulf moisture from Karen and bringing an end to our dry weather. Rainfall amounts could be modest Sunday and Monday here in Montreal and across Eastern Ontario into northern New England. There could even be some thunderstorms. Temperatures will however remain mild into next week for Montreal

Thursday, October 03, 2013

Big snowstorm for western Plains - warm in the east

A potent low pressure area will develop today across the northern Rockies and swing into the central plains tonight. This system has already produced 3-7cm of wet snow over portions of southwest Alberta into northwest Montana. The storm will ramp up later today and tonight with rain changing to heavy wet snow across the Black Hills of South Dakota west into Wyoming as well as portions of North Dakota. Forecasters expect 12-24 inches (30-60cm) of wet snow by the end of Friday with strong northerly winds producing blowing and drifting snow. Power lines and trees will be subject to the heavy weight of the snow as well as the wind.

The storm will lift into the western Great Lakes by the weekend with a chance of some snow over northwest Ontario. Meanwhile here in southern Quebec and Ontario, today is day 11 of sunshine and above normal temperatures. We hit 25C (77F) in Montreal on Wednesday, and should do 22C today. Some showers are likely by late Friday into Saturday. Wet weather can also be expected to start next week, but it will remain warm for October.

We should have the development of tropical storm Karen at some point today. The National Hurricane Center is giving an area of disturbed weather and thunderstorms near the Yucatan an 80 per cent chance of development. Karen will then threaten the Yucatan as she moves into the southern Gulf. All interest along the Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system today and into the weekend.

Wednesday, October 02, 2013

Active Northern Lights - spectacular fall weather

This incredible photo of the Northern Lights was taken by an observer on top of Mount Washington last evening. It was posted to their Facebook page, you can purchase your own copy and support the Observatory HERE.
What more can you say about this weather, simply spectacular for this time of year. Today is the 10th consecutive sunny day with no precipitation in Montreal, a feat difficult at anytime of the year, let alone late September into October. It appears today will be the warmest day of them all, with strong southwest winds up to 50km/h ahead of a weak cold front. Temperatures will match or exceed the high of 24C recorded on Tuesday. That is a full 8 degrees above normal. Today we are already at 16C, usually the normal high for today's date. There is an end in sight, but not a drastic one. A frontal system will bring showers and slightly cooler weather into the weekend.

Big changes are expected in the west where a deep dip in the jet stream will allow cold air to plummet into the Rockies and western Great Plains. Winter Storm Watches may be hoisted for the Black Hills of South Dakota into Wyoming by late Thursday. Strong winds and snow are forecast on the west side of a developing storm, while severe weather is likely across Missouri and Illinois. This system will bring rain and cooler weather into Ontario and Quebec by next week.

Last night the Aurora Boriealis or northern lights were quite active across a wide region from the Prairies across the far north and into Quebec and northern New England. Sadly I slept through them after two 12 hour workdays, I think we also had a little cloud cover overnight. I have posted a spectacular picture taken from the top of Mount Washington in central New Hampshire last night. I invite you to click on the link on the right side of my blog and explore the observatory atop the mountain. I have been a member for three years now, every penny worth it when you see the research and spectacular photos and observations taken form this unique weatherscape. I have visited once, and plan a return trip next year, perhaps for a longer stay to volunteer, one never knows.