Monday, September 30, 2013

More sunny & warm fall weather

As September slips into October, the weather remains absolutely perfect for Montreal and southern Quebec. A stubborn ridge of high pressure has provided us so far with 8 consecutive days of sunny, warm weather with highs over the weekend in the mid 20's. We have not had any precipitation since last Sunday and we will not see any before next Saturday. This morning a dissipating cold front is producing some showers across central and southern Ontario. This front will continue to weaken as it moves into Quebec with just clouds expected late today and this evening. Otherwise look for good weather through Friday with high temperatures in the middle 20's and lows either side of 10C. These are well above the normal high/low of 16/6C for Montreal.

Over the weekend a strong Pacific storm moved onto Vancouver Island affecting the entire south coast and portions of neighboring Washington State with 100km/h winds and 50-100mm (2-4 inches) of rainfall. Trees were knocked down, power was out to thousands of BC Hydro clients and flooding was reported.

Strong winds and flooding occurred this weekend along BC's south coast. 
(CBC News)

Friday, September 27, 2013

Perfect September Weekend for Montreal

The entire region continues to benefit from high pressure stuck over Quebec. Light winds and clear skies have allowed for cool nights but warm days. A few periods of cloud cover have occurred in Montreal, as is typical in the fall, but no precipitation has been recorded. One of those periods is occurring this morning as a low deck of stratus cloud cover crosses the region. This will move out soon with nothing but sunshine through the weekend. Temperatures will be well above normal during the day from 20 to 23C (70-75F) and cool, near normal nights at around 5C (41F). Some fog may also develop after midnight as the air becomes quite moist in the longer overnight hours. A few clouds may occur Sunday night along a weakening cold front, but otherwise look for more sunshine and well above normal temperatures through next week. A coastal storm will remain to our east with no weather from it here in the St. Lawrence Valley.

While it remains dry here in Montreal, there is some weather out there. A Pacific storm dumped heavy snow across the Rockies and coastal mountains this week. The photo above, from The Weather Channel, is deep snow at Crater Lake Lodge in Oregon. More snow is forecast this weekend. Soggy, stormy weather will occur from B.C. into Saskatchewan.
With very tranquil weather in Montreal to close out September we have to look elsewhere for storminess. A large and strong Pacific storm will slam into south coastal British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest this weekend. Early estimates for rainfall are in the 60-120mm range with 60-80km/h winds. There will also be more snowfall at the highest elevations.

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Enjoy this autumn gift

There are only three months until Christmas Day! Now that I have your attention, think about it, today will be sunny and nearly 21C (70F). Now think about the incredible transition the weather will go through over the next three months and along with it our bodies, pets, homes, cars etc and you get the picture. All that to say enjoy the next several days a we really get a gift from God and mother nature. With low pressure stuck off the Atlantic Canada coast, high pressure is very slowly drifting across Ontario and Quebec this week. The nights will be cool with lots of dew and even frost away from the metro areas and bodies of water. But the days will be spectacular, just a few clouds and warm temperatures, well above normal into the 20's right through the weekend. The weather will provide exceptional viewing of the fall colors that are starting to burst across the region, especially the higher elevations south of Montreal.

From The Weather Channel, the white peaks of the Big Sky Country in Montana. Snow fell already during the past week as the seasons begin the change. Enjoy the sunshine and warmth of this week in Montreal.
There are signs of the change of seasons, many trees are sporting color now, and we are stating to see lots of flocks of Canadian geese heading south over L'Ile Perrot, a stopping spot on there trek south to the Carolina's and points beyond. Another sign that we have a change in the seasons underway is coming from the Rockies northwest into Alaska where some snow has already fallen.

Cody the Stormchaser
One of my friends & colleagues from my days at the Kemptville Advance has a great blog called The Accidental Farmwife. This week she writes about two subjects near and dear to my heart, dogs and weather. I know it all too well just how reliable dogs are at predicting thunderstorms, her Cody and my Bella, little furry barometers. Have a read HERE

Monday, September 23, 2013

Fall arrives with a spectacular forecast for Montreal

Leaves have been falling off the oak trees since the middle of August. But as if they knew, the maples with their vivid reds, were waiting for the first day of fall to explode with color here on the West Island of Montreal. (ValleyWX)
Fall is officially here despite my best efforts to keep summer around a little longer. It is a very cool morning across the area with Ottawa down to 2C (36F) and L'Ile Perrot at 5C (41F). Look for nothing but sunshine today and for the balance of the week as high pressure slowly settles into Quebec. Temperatures will start out below normal with a forecast high of only 13C (55F) for Montreal today. Temperatures will drop to near 3C (39F) tonight but warm up to 18C (65F) Tuesday. By the end of the week we should see highs near 21C (70F). The next threat for any rain will not arrive before next Sunday at the earliest. That is is, a very simple forecast. I was reading the forecast discussion out of the National Weather Service office in Burlington, Vermont and they pretty much echoed the same, nothing to see here folks, sunshine all week.

Friday, September 20, 2013

Rainy weekend for Montreal

Like this entire week, it will be a near perfect Friday as summer 2013 draws to a close. Sunshine and warm southwest breeze will allow temperatures to rise to 27C (80F) in Montreal. We welcome Autumn at 4:44 pm on Sunday afternoon. The forecast this weekend is not looking so good as an area of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms slowly move across the St. Lawrence Valley from midday Saturday through Sunday. As much as 25mm (1 inch) of rain may fall over the weekend. Skies will clear out late Sunday setting the stage for another spectacular work week next week. Temperatures are forecast to rise back above normal with nothing but sunshine from Monday to Friday.

Of note, yesterday we were thinking that a tropical system might get going in the Gulf of Mexico and perhaps threaten Florida or the east coast. This is becoming less likely, at least at this time. The tropics look quiet for the weekend, a blessing at this time of the year.

Thursday, September 19, 2013

First snow across Rockies & warm in southern Quebec

Summer 2013 is just about over with the Fall Equinox to occur this Sunday. The summer will end cold out west and with a warming trend here in the east. Montreal can expect sunshine today and Friday with warm high temperatures of 24C and 27C respectively. High pressure that has dominated all week will slowly slide off to the east allowing a cold front to cross the St. Lawrence Valley on Saturday. So sadly it looks like showers for both days this weekend. Temperatures will cool back down into the high teens for both days.

There is lots of weather to speak off across North America from tropical activity in the south to snow in the west and across portions of Alaska. September snow is not unusual, but being that it has been such a warm summer, it is a little surprising. A couple of centimeters fell at Sunshine Village near Banff yesterday as seen on the their webcam image above. It should melt today as temperatures warm up slightly in Alberta.

Mexico continues to be hammered by two tropical systems causing severe flooding with over 60 deaths reported. Hurricane Manual has re-developed just off the Pacific coast and continues to pound the region with heavy rain. Forecasters are now watching the warm Gulf of Mexico waters near the Yucatan for development of the next storm, Jerry. Several computers models develop this storm and take Jerry towards Florida so this system will have to be watched over the next 48 hours.

Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Cool start to day - but beautiful week ahead

Strong high pressure is now in control of the weather in southern Quebec and much of Ontario and New England. It is a cold start to the day with clear skies and temperatures ranging from below freezing in the Adirondacks and Townships to around 4C (39F) here in Montreal. There was no frost this morning, at least here on L'Ile Perrot. I imagine with lows at 0C or colder in many locations, other areas were not so lucky. It will be sunny today and right through the end of the week with slowly moderating temperatures. Highs of 17C (63F) today but warming into the mid 20's by Friday. Lows will be much milder this evening around 8C (47F).

Monday, September 16, 2013

Another early frost expected for southern Quebec

Our rather unusual September will continue with near record lows forecast for many parts of southern Quebec and New England tonight. This occurring just days after record warmth and strong summer thunderstorms. L'Ile Perrot was chilly this morning after a cold front brought us around 10mm of rain overnight. The temperatures around the area this morning range from 5 to 9C. It was cold and wet walking the dog. Clearing skies have already moved into the Ottawa Valley, and they should arrive in Montreal by mid morning. Look for temperatures to rebound to near 15C before diving down to near the freezing point tonight with patchy frost in the city and suburbs. Away from the water most areas north and southeast of the city and across northern New England will see frost. Frost warnings have been posted for those regions and I suspect the growing season may come to an end in several communities. Remember it is still summer!

Ingrid is located near the Mexican Gulf Coast this morning with 75mph winds. Wind and a storm surge are likely along the immediate coast from extreme south Texas into Mexico but the main threat will be rain. Ingrid will weaken after landfall this morning but move slowly into the mountainous terrain of central Mexico. The slow moving nature of the storm combined with the mountains will produce copious amounts of rain. Major flooding and mudslides are expected for this area with the potential for damage and loss of life quite high. Up to 25 inches of rain may fall this week in that region.

Friday, September 13, 2013

Cooler less humid weekend for Montreal

Lightning illuminates US 1A in North Hampton Beach.
It has been a really wild weather week with record heat sparking big thunderstorms over Quebec, Ontario and New England. The storms dumped 50-100mm from Montreal south with flooding, power outages and trees down. Now colder air is settling in with just a few showers around. Wednesday's near record high of 31C in Montreal is long gone as we will struggle to hit 16C today.

Meanwhile major flooding occurred in Boulder, Colorado yesterday with as much as 10 inches of rain sweeping away cars, homes and everything in its path. Three fatalities were reported in what some are describing as a 500 year flood very similar in nature to what happened in Alberta this year.

Finally the tropics remain active with a weak but very wet tropical depression Gabrielle about to interact with a cold front and deluge Atlantic Canada. Heavy rain warnings are posted for up to 100mm of rain along with 70 km/h winds in Cape Breton and later western Newfoundland. In the Gulf of Mexico TD 10 has formed and is forecast to become a tropical storm and affect Mexico and south Texas this weekend with torrential rain and flooding.

This is my last day blogging with the crashing surf in the background. I could live here, just missing my dog and I would move in! It has been an active week here with July heat followed by strong storms. I leave you with two of the best lightning shots I have ever taken above and below. I took them in the early hours of Thursday morning looking across US 1A into the Atlantic Ocean.

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Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Record heat & humidity

Take time to remember today on this 12th anniversary of 9/11. Thank you to all who continue to protect our freedom here in North America. Above is the Portsmouth, NH Coast Guard Station. (ValleyWX)
A stubborn warm front remains just to the south of Montreal this morning separating record September heat from the misty, cool weather in the valley. Cornwall and Kemptville in Ontario were already in the mid 20's this morning while Montreal remained in the middle teens. All areas will see warm and humid highs pushing 30C (86F) today. Records were smashed across Ontario on Tuesday as highs pushed 32 to 34C. Further south where I am in New Hampshire, highs are forecast as warm as 95F today. The record for Montreal today is 31.1 set in 1947. We have a shot at it if we see the low clouds and mist lift.Thunderstorms over the last 24 hours left about 10mm of rain here on L'Ile Perrot. Strong storms are likely over the next 24 hours as a strong cold front slices through this thick, unseasonably humid air. Heavy rain may be the main threat with as much as 50mm expected. Strong winds and hail are possible as well. The biggest threat in Montreal will be late today into early Thursday morning.

The tropics have become active in what has been a very tranquil season to date. Hurricane Humberto developed early this morning saving the Atlantic basin from the "latest developing hurricane in any season record", by three hours! This system is way out in the Atlantic and no threat to land. Meanwhile of greater concern is tropical storm Gabrielle, located 85km west of Bermuda. The island nation has had wind gusts over 40 mph and very rough seas. Gabrielle is expected to weaken slightly as it moves off to the north and northeast. The storm will affect the coastal waters off Atlantic Canada and possibly Newfoundland by the weekend.

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Summer heat & big thunderstorms

A warm front along the US border has become the focus for heavy showers and thunderstorms this morning. They will taper mid day and then fire up again this afternoon. There is a risk of severe weather with heavy rain, hail and even the risk of isolated tornadoes over upstate NY and Vermont. Southern Ontario is already warm and humid with temperatures near 24C in Windsor on the way to 34C with humidex readings over 40C. Clouds will keep Montreal around 29C.

Where I am along the coast it will be warm and humid near 80F today and over 90F, perhaps record setting Wednesday. The entire region will see more strong storms Thursday as a cold front cuts across the area. More cold air will pour into the region on the weekend with temperatures plummeting from record setting to well below normal and frost.

Two tropical systems are in the Atlantic basin this morning, Gabrielle and Humberto. Tropical storm Gabrielle will brush Bermuda before it heads towards Atlantic Canada. Meanwhile tropical storm Humberto is way out in the Atlantic Ocean south of the Cape Verde Islands. If Humberto reaches hurricane status today, it will avoid a record breaking year for the latest hurricane to develop in any season. The previous year was 2002 when Gustav formed at 8am on September 11.
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Monday, September 09, 2013

From frost to hot weather for Ontario & Quebec

The view of a near perfect Sunday from Portsmouth Harbor Light in New Hampshire. (ValleyWX)
It is a chilly start for the week across much of southern Ontario & Quebec with frost reported once again in several locations. It is early for this as it does remain summer! It was as cold as 5C (41F) at my home on L'Ile Perrot this morning with 0C (32F) in Sherbrooke. We will see a sunny day with increasing southwest winds and warming highs into the low 20's. The wind shift will herald the arrival of much warmer air from the southwest that will invade Ontario and Quebec through the midweek. The heat and humidity may be record breaking for some of us with near 30C forecast for many areas by Wednesday and as warm as 33C in Toronto. A warm front will approach Montreal on Tuesday but may remain just south of the city with showers and clouds keeping the temperature a little lower for the city.

In any event it will lift well north of my location here in southern coastal New Hampshire. Wednesday will be a true September gift with sunshine and forecast highs of near 90F here. Who would have thought beach weather in September! The warmth will be short lived with more chilly air and the threat for frost moving into the region by next weekend.

With the arrival and departure of the warm and humid air, we have a pretty good chance of some strong thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday along both the warm front and cold front. This will have to be monitored closely.

Sunday, September 08, 2013

Cold frosty night then warm week ahead

Well I am finally taking a little break from the routine with a few days on the coast in southern New Hampshire and northeast Massachusetts. August was a very busy month with lots of changes in my life and family, so I am glad to change it up and see some different weather. When I return to Montreal, I will be back in the newspaper business, where I belong, working for The Suburban, who are celebrating their 50th year publishing in 2013.

Now back to the weather. Sunshine this morning here in Hampton Beach and mild as a cold front lies to our north. That front passed through Montreal and southern Quebec overnight with a few showers and cooler weather. Temperatures will be cooler today in Montreal, around 19C. Tonight it will be clear and cold again with frost across regions north of Montreal, and in northern Vermont and New York. Temperatures will be near 6C in Montreal but as cold as 0C in the Townships. Then a big warm up is on the way with perhaps 30C by mid-week in Montreal. It will be a warm and humid week with thunderstorms by Thursday.

I will be blogging from the coast for a few days so look for some new pictures soon. For now I leave you with sunrise this morning at North Hampton Beach.
Sunrise on North Hampton Beach this morning.(Valley WX)

Friday, September 06, 2013

Warmer weekend for Montreal

The threat of frost is over for the time being with warmer southwest winds increasing this morning. Temperatures were very cool overnight for this early in September. Frost was reported in some areas north of Montreal and in the Ottawa and Rideau Valley's. It was as cold as 5C (41F) here on L'Ile Perrot this morning, 4C in Ottawa, and 1C (33F) in Sherbrooke. Temperatures will warm quickly today with bright sunshine and highs near 21C (70F). A cold front will sweep the St. Lawrence Valley by mid-day Saturday with increasing clouds tonight and showers Saturday. Sunday will see some residual clouds and showers before skies clear in the afternoon.

Thursday, September 05, 2013

Widespread frost & freeze warnings

From Environment Canada, frost warning map for southern Quebec for Friday morning. Lows will be near of below freezing in the red shaded areas and between 3 and 5C elsewhere.
Every September I fight the onset of fall and watch helplessly as summer slips away. This morning was no different as I continue to defy the odds and wear shorts to walk the dog despite the 9C (48F) weather here on L'Ile Perrot. We were as cold as 8.6C this morning at my home at around 7am. Skies are clear and winds are light perfect for radiational cooling. We can expect a sunny day with highs trying to reach the 20C (68F) mark. Tonight will be very cold with widespread frost expected north of Montreal and in the hills and mountains south of the city and into New York and Vermont. Lows will range from near 0C (32F) north or the city to around 5C (41F) in metro regions of Montreal and Ottawa. The shorts will stay on tomorrow morning as September 7 is just too early to throw in the flag!

Frost warnings are in effect on both sides of the international border with several hours of below freezing temperatures possible across the Adirondacks of New York and the extreme northern Laurentians. Low pressure moving north of Montreal by late Friday will allow for a moderation in temperatures as we head into the weekend. Showers are possible both Saturday and Sunday as a cold front moves into the St. Lawrence Valley -
but it will not be a washout.

Wednesday, September 04, 2013

Much cooler weather to end the week in southern Quebec

Possible Frost Thursday night for Townships & Laurentians
A cold front southeast of Hudson Bay this morning will race into southern Quebec by this evening. In advance of the front sunshine will allow temperatures to climb to 21C (70F) today. Showers along the front this evening will end overnight from Montreal to the US border and early Thursday across New England. Temperatures will settle back into the low teens tonight and stay there on Thursday as some of the coolest air since last May settles into the region. Temperatures on Thursday will struggle to make it to 16C (60F) in Montreal. Overnight lows Thursday night will be around 6 or 7C in Montreal but as cold as 2 or 3C away from the city and below freezing in the colder sheltered valley's of the Townships into upstate New York and Vermont. This will certainly inject some color into the leaves which are starting to turn here on L'Ile Perrot. The good news is it will be sunny through Friday with just a chance of some showers late Saturday. Temperatures will start to warm again into the weekend as high pressure moves off the east coast.

Tuesday, September 03, 2013

Welcome to a new season

The setting sun on L'Ile Perrot casts an eerie glow on departing thunderstorms to my east. (ValleyWeather)
September 1 marked the start of meteorological fall, but we still have a few decent summer days left, some years more, some years less. The last holiday weekend of the summer was good in Montreal with a warm and muggy Saturday followed by a near perfect Sunday, sunshine and ideal temperatures of 26C. Labor Day Monday not so good as a series of fronts brought us several rounds of thunderstorms with the late afternoon storms being the most active. A well defined line of storms paraded east across Ontario and New York State into Vermont and southern Quebec around the supper hour. There was lots of lightning with the cells but not much severe weather. The one exception was very heavy rainfall. About 12mm fell in just a few minutes here on L'Ile Perrot while the airport recorded 20mm. Much more fell across the Townships with over 60mm (2 inches) at Sherbrooke. Flooding was reported in the Magog area.

The morning storms skirted us here on L'Ile Perot but did manage to topple some trees on the Island of Montreal as well as produce flooding in Laval. Those storms were along a warm front that was followed by partial sunshine and muggy weather setting up the evening thunderstorms.

Morning thunderstorms toppled this tree in NDG. (The Gazette)
Another front will cross the region today with showers and much cooler weather. Temperatures will struggle to make it to 20C. A cold front late Wednesday will bring in some of the coolest air so far this season with temperatures in the single digits for lows and highs of around 16C by