Thursday, February 17, 2011

Brief warming trend

As I expected, the warm air located just to our south is having a difficult time moving into the St. Lawrence Valley. Toronto reached plus 5C yesterday while Montreal remained chilly at -4C with that ever persistent northeast wind and a deep snow pack keeping temperatures down. The key to today's forecast is simply this, can the approaching warm front to our southwest move the cold air out of Montreal? All bets are yes at this time with a forecast high of plus 1C by late today. With precipitation beginning this evening in the form of showers, there may be enough cold air at the surface for freezing rain from Montreal north and east towards Quebec City within the valley. It should be short lived in metro Montreal.

Look for rising temperatures overnight on strong southwest winds to 50km/h. Temperatures will rise all the way up to plus 7 to 12C across southern Quebec, eastern Ontario and northern New England on Friday. Rapid snow melt will likely cause some ponding of water on roadways and also area lakes and rivers may begin to rise. Ice conditions will become unstable and less than ideal over the next 48 hours, so perhaps staying off the rivers is not a bad idea.

By late Friday an approaching cold front will bring the threat of showers which will gradually change to snow flurries with dropping temperatures to well below freezing by Saturday morning. Winds will increase out of the northwest from 40-60km/h and it will be a cold day around -5C. Some snow is possible Sunday but more on that later.

1 comment:

Jenn Jilks said...

We had pouring rain in Perth, today. Very strange!