Low pressure continues to lift into northern Quebec tonight as the snow has eased in the Montreal area. Radar shows more snow showers along a cold front over eastern Ontario swinging towards Montreal. Another 2-5cm will fall overnight before this latest storm is over. That will bring storm totals to above 30cm across the region. Not bad for a 2-4cm forecast.
Lets talk about the forecast. As the title says, weather forecasting is not an exact science. Lots of variables have to come together at any given time for storms to occur. I would never make any excuses, but lots of Montrealers are upset over the recent missed forecast. Readers of my blog will notice that I mentioned this possibility as early as last Friday. When we are dealing with coastal systems the difference of 100 miles can mean a storm or nothing. With Great Lakes systems often for Montreal just a few kilometres can mean snow instead of rain or freezing rain. This was a difficult forecast from the start. Computer models are not very good at handling odd weather situations. Low pressure moving from Bermuda to Maine and then northwest towards James Bay is one of those moments. It was the perfect track for a windy, snowy event in Montreal and southwest Quebec. Where Environment Canada dropped the ball was not realizing just how quickly the snow was moving towards Montreal and just how hard it was falling. Looking at radar and observations yesterday morning it was obvious heavy snow was heading for the city. Oddly they issued a warning at 11:30am this morning, pretty much when the event was over.
We can expect a break in the weather for a day or two before the next big storm takes aim at the northeast, Ontario and Quebec by this weekend into Monday.
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