Sunday, March 30, 2008
Friday, March 28, 2008
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Good morning everyone and sorry for the days between posts. Easter and a big move at work have occupied my time. Fortunately the weather has been calm and will continue to be that way. We are in a pattern of fast moving west to east weather systems. We can expect the flurries and showers of last night to taper this morning. This will be followed by sunshine until Sunday! Mild weather as well as the March sun will begin to warm us up. We can expect high temperatures close to the normal of about 5C with overnight lows still chilly at -10C. This is good news allowing for the slow thaw to continue. The only chance of precipitation will be late Friday as another clipper slides south of our area. It may just nudge into our region.
Thursday, March 20, 2008
A 2.8 earthquake rattled the area just after 1:25pm today. It lasted only a few seconds but was felt across the region. Residents have reported the quake to both the Municipal Office and here at the paper.
Check this link for more information http://earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca/index_e.php
You made it! Spring officially arrived at 1:48am this morning. Great - winter is over and we were greeted by...snow. Over 20mm or so of rain fell across the area yesterday, but changed to wet snow overnight and has tapered off. Only a few flurries are expected today. Temperatures will be below normal for the Easter Weekend, but the weather looks great for anyone travelling.
A few notes this morning - first Happy Easter. Secondly it is becoming more apparent that we are in for flooding this spring, and it could be major. The Rideau Valley Conservation Authority has issued a FLOOD ADVISORY for the region. Click on the link to read the details. If you live along any watercourse in eastern Ontario now is the time to plan. According to the authority there has only been this much water in the snow pack on one other occasion, 1976, and it was a record flood year on the Rideau.
On another note it appears the risk of a flash melt or thaw continues. Senior Environment Canada Climatologist, David Phillips, has indicated he expects at least 6 more weeks of below normal temperatures and increased snowfall before we begin warming up for what appears to be a warm summer. If this is true the end of winter will be delayed, but when it comes, it will come fast.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Another round of wet and wintry weather is upon us in eastern Ontario. Low pressure over the Midwest will slide down the St. Lawrence Valley late today and tomorrow. Along the storm track we can expect some snow changing to freezing rain and eventually rain overnight tonight in Kemptville. The type and duration of precipitation will be based on how quick the cold air is flushed out of the valley The rain snow mix is already into the GTA and should move into our region this evening. Expect 20-25mm of rain and snow over the next 24 hours. With milder air Wednesday I expect mostly rain. The roads could be slippery tonight and and early Wednesday, especially in the Ottawa Valley.
While no warnings are in place for Ontario, a Winter Weather Advisory is in place for all of northern New York State including Ogdensburg and Watertown. They are forecasting 5-12cm of snow before the changeover to rain tonight.
Sunday, March 16, 2008
The week ahead...
The freezing drizzle and flurries of yesterday and overnight have moved east of Kemptville this morning. The fog has lifted as well, and cooler northwest winds are settling in. There should be some decent sunny breaks today and Monday along with temperatures at or slightly above freezing. Travel conditions will be ideal...
Computer models are doing a much better job now handling the next system. It appears we are in for a round of mild weather and rain Wednesday. Before the warm air works in we may see some mixed precipitation late Tuesday. The storm will develop over the Midwest US and head down the St. Lawrence Valley. As the system makes its way east of the area Thursday slightly cooler air will move in and light snow is expected Thursday and Good Friday and may last into the Easter Weekend. All in all an unsettled week for the last week of Winter 2007/2008.
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
From AM 1220 Cornwall...
City Officials Concerned About Roofs Due To Snow
March 12, 2008 — The recent dump of snow has officials in Cornwall concerned about area roofs. With nearly 50 centimetres on the ground and more on the way, city employees say there have been some problems with larger buildings that have flat roofs but there are no safety concerns. Some are sagging under the weight of the snow. Chief Building Official Barry Coleman tells AM 1220 News home and business owners should ask for professional help to see if their roof is at risk.
South Dundas Butcher Dies In Weekend Storm
March 12, 2008 — A well-known South Dundas butcher has died after getting lost in Sunday's snowstorm. Police say 52-year-old Neil Spruit of Brinston was found on Monday morning after he failed to return home on Sunday night. Spruit had evidently gone out to help a family member with an all-terrain vehicle. Police say his six-wheel A-T-V became stuck. Spruit was found less than two kilometers from his house. He was taken to hospital in Winchester where he was pronounced dead. An autopsy shows he died from hypothermia. Spruit had owned Neil's Butcher Block for roughly two decades.
Snow Causes Roof Problems At Cornwall Wal-Mart
March 11, 2008 — The roof at Cornwall's Wal-Mart is feeling the effects of the snow dump. Management says the roof has bowed about an inch near the check out area. Some electrical housing poles have also bent. Assistant Manager Rick Payette tells AM 1220 News the store remains open and there are no safety concerns. (Hear audio clip below) A construction crew is removing the snow and lightening the load.
Monday, March 10, 2008
Sunday, March 09, 2008
Ottawa 50cm, Montreal 40cm, Cornwall 45cm...
Unreal...Incredible...this was a storm for the record books, well forecasted from start to finish. The storm was caused by low pressure sliding down the St. Lawrence Valley. For that reason the hardest hit areas were from Ottawa to Kingston and northeast towards Quebec City. Many roads were closed last night in eastern Ontario and especially along the south shore of Montreal. Drivers were rescued by snowmobile in many cases. The wind was fierce with gusts to 82km/h at Montreal, 100km/h along the South Shore, 58km/h in Ottawa and 85km/h at Cornwal. Thunder was reported with the snow in Cornwall. The lowest pressure with the storm was around 986mb a formidable storm for sure. I was amazed by the duration of near zero visibility, 12 hours at Dorval in Montreal with less than 0.6km. It was even less across the southern part of the valley, close to zero. Transport Quebec and Provincial Police on both sides of the border were forced to close roads. They had no choice travel was impossible. Hundreds of cars were abandoned on area roads.
In addition over 84,000 clients were left without power in Quebec. Conditions will slowly improve today, but roads remain snow covered and blowing snow is a problem. The biggest storm of the year has also created chaos at airports in Montreal, Toronto and Ottawa. Call ahead - but the first flight since late yesterday afternoon left Montreal at 8:30am this morning.
More details later today with my pictures as well.
Saturday, March 08, 2008
Blizzard conditions in Montreal
Incredible...that is how I describe this storm from my vantage point on Montreal's South Shore adjacent to Highway 15. Winds are howling at 75km/h, higher in gusts. They could gust to 100km/h tonight. Travel all along the St. Lawrence Valley is nearly impossible tonight. Snow is falling at several centimetres an hour with 30cm down in Ottawa already. Travel along the 401 is not recommended. Sleet is mixing in with even thunder reported. Look for 30-50cm over all areas by the time in ends around daybreak.
This is a dangerous storm with numerous accidents reported. Do not travel tonight unless it is an emergency......Wind Warnings have also been issue...winds may cause power outages tonight. In New England flooding is occurring in the south with ice and snow in the north.
Friday, March 07, 2008
Sorry for the delay on the update....I am on the road for some storm chasing....The latest winter storm is on our doorstep this evening with wet snow beginning over Ottawa and the St. Lawrence. The snow will increase in intensity through the night and become very heavy by Saturday afternoon and evening. Intense low pressure over Alabama will move north and pass just south of the St. Lawrence Valley. Montreal and Ottawa as well as the St. Lawrence Valley will be hit with 30-40cm of snow. Most of the heavy snow will fall from 2pm Saturday to early Sunday morning. Snow could fall at several centimetres an hour and with winds from 50-70km/h travel may become impossible along the 401, 416, 417 and 40/20 in Quebec. Thunder may also occur with the snow.
Winter Storm Warnings have been posted for all regions Ontario, Quebec, NY. The storm will come to an end rapidly on Sunday. This is a very dangerous storm cancel all travel plans from noon Saturday.
Here is the latest this morning on our pending winter storm. First let me say that in an effort to simplify things to the general public, Environment Canada just complicates things more. Their terminology and criteria for issuing warnings and watches seems to change with each storm. I admire the forecasters there, believe me, it is just the policy that confuses me! Just my opinion. I like to be consistent from start to finish rather than confuse people.
So with that said here is my take on the upcoming storm. First expect a Winter Storm Warning to be posted at some time today for Ontario and Quebec (not sure why they are waiting for this). Keep in mind they are already in effect for most of upstate New York, if you are travelling in that direction. Snow will spread well ahead of the main area of low pressure developing over the Gulf States and reach our region late this afternoon. It will be light and wet with this first batch and accumulate 5-10cm by daybreak on Saturday. Conditions should improve for a few hours Saturday morning before the main area of low pressure slides by to our southeast. This second shot of precipitation will be heavy at times with strong north and northeast winds to 70km/h or higher blowing it around. Travel will quickly deteriorate Saturday. Travel may become dangerous to impossible Saturday night especially in the St. Lawrence Valley and 416 corridor.
Whew! By the time it all ends Sunday morning look for 20-30cm in general with isolated pockets of over 40cm from Cornwall to Montreal and around the Niagara area. The next update will be around NOON.
Of Note: Quebec March break ends while Ontario March break begins...add a snowstorm and the airports should be a zoo!
• Ottawa parking ban in the central part of the city for snow removal. ALL cars must be off city street, watch your parking today.
• Several counties, including Leeds & Grenville appear to be out of salt. Plowing and spreading of abrasives will continue, but don't expect black top until the sun melts it on county roads. Adjust your speed...
Thursday, March 06, 2008
It has become almost routine this winter, storm after storm. For years this region has been either on the edge of storms or in warm air, so we received rain, not this season. The winter of 2007/2008 has dropped more snow on eastern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley than most places in Canada including the Maritimes. Yesterday storm totals were 24cm for Smiths Falls, 28cm for Ottawa and 32cm for Montreal. Most places have approached or are within striking range of their snowiest winters. I estimated Kemptville had close to 25cm of precipitation about half of that sleet. Roads were the poorest I have seen them all winter yesterday in North Grenville. The sleet was like ball bearings to drive on. I helped push out at lest 4 cars...love those 20 year old traction aides of mine!
Now onto the next storm. After a break today we can expect snow and strong northeast winds to redevelop late Friday ahead of low pressure developing in Texas. This storm is expected to ride up the spine of the Appalachians and pass east of our region. This would place Kemptville, Ottawa and Montreal in the area for the biggest snows again. While the forecast is still difficult because the storm has yet to develop, paths such as this usually bring 20-30cm of snow. Winds will be very strong again with this storm in the 50-60km/h range causing blowing and drifting snow. The worse day will be Saturday, so plan your weekend accordingly. I will update this blog at around 4pm today.
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
12:45 Storm Update
Another major storm is on the way for Saturday...stay tuned for that.
10-15cm to date
WINTER STORM WARNING in effect...Patient is the operative word on the roads today. School buses have been cancelled once again in Leeds/Grenville and all off Eastern Ontario, as another major storm is over Ontario and Quebec. Here in Kemptville the snow started after midnight and changed to heavy sleet around 2am. This type of precipitation continues to fall mixed with snow. Around 10-15cm has fallen in most areas so far. The sleet is being driven by strong northeast winds with the storm. Both my automated anemometer and the one at Ag Canada are down so all I can do is estimate at this point until I get outside with my hand held wind gauge. Weather offices around Kemptville including Ottawa and Ogdensburg, NY have been in the 50-60km/h range with Montreal gusting to 71km/h. This is different from other storms this year for Kemptville where winds speeds have been down. It has been very gusty and has produced blowing snow and drifting snow. Radar returns continue to show the precipitation streaming north and it will continue to do so well into the afternoon before tapering off.
Whew! Beyond that...well rumors are for a powerful Nor'Easter (east coast US storm) on Saturday with a track that brings eastern Ontario the biggest snow and winds with any type of storm. The track reminds me of the March 15, 1993 Superstorm. But, it is early, lets deal with this one first....next update mid-afternoon today with pics I hope!
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
After reading several forecast discussions from National Weather Service offices in New York and reviewing our forecast this morning I am confident of one thing, we are getting a storm tonight. Now the tricky part what type of precipitation will occur?
The scenario is like this, a cold front is in the process of passing through our region this morning. In fact we are down to 2C here in Kemptville after yesterdays remarkable high of 10C. Ah the sound of running water and warm sun made it feel like spring was really here, albeit for just a few hours. The front is expected to stall through central New York. Along this front a moisture latent storm will move northeast and pass just south of the St. Lawrence Valley on Wednesday. Temperatures are very critical with this storm, and it is looking more and more likely that a significant freezing rain event will occur in the St. Lawrence Valley.
If I was a betting man, look for snow to begin this evening from Kemptville south and change to freezing rain overnight. It will remain as all snow north and west of this area including the Ottawa Valley. In all areas winds will become strong overnight gusting to 60km/h. For all areas close to 25mm of liquid will fall....this will be 15-25cm of snow or 15-25mm of ice. So you see...I was not joking it is a storm and a difficult forecast. One thing is certain it will not be a good day for any travel tomorrow across the entire northeast and Ontario and Quebec.
Winter Storm Watch: Ontario (these will be updated to Freezing Rain or snow warnings later today).
Winter Storm Warning: Montreal, Vermont and New York for snow, blowing snow and ice.
Monday, March 03, 2008
It is another snow day across Eastern Ontario as school buses have been cancelled in all boards for about the 8th time this school year dating back to November. The news is good for the balance of the day as the freezing rain that has been falling since about 4am, is just about over. A light coating of ice has made roads tricky. It should become partly sunny and mild today behind the warm front with temperatures approaching 5C.
Beyond today a major winter storm will approach our area for late Tuesday and Wednesday. A new Winter Storm Watch has been posted for western and central New York state and this will be expanded to include all regions by late today or tomorrow.
The set up is like this, but keep in mind it remains a very difficult forecast, a cold front will slide across our area later today and stall south of our region tonight. Low pressure is developing over Texas and will lift along the front. The moisture latent storm will bring heavy snow and ice to all areas. The timing and type of precipitation is yet to be determined.
Sunday, March 02, 2008
Several low pressure areas will bring a difficult weather week to Ontario and Quebec. The forecast is very complicated at best. Here is what it looks like at the moment. Low pressure over Lake Superior will slide east towards the Great Lakes today and bring a round of freezing rain and showers to the area overnight and into Monday morning. The precipitation should become spotty in the afternoon Monday. it will be icy for the morning commute in Ottawa and Montreal so plan accordingly.
After this system winds down and moves southeast the cold front will stall just south of the St. Lawrence Valley. A more potent storm with widespread precipitation will move northeast into the region along this front by late Tuesday. This storm has the potential to bring heavy freezing rain and snow to the area into Wednesday. The exact details of this storm are sketchy at the moment but it will be a difficult travel week till Thursday. Behind the system much colder air will settle in by the end of the week.
Stay tuned...I will update the blog frequently as more information becomes available.