Thursday, June 29, 2006

Severe Weather likely today in Kemptville

This has just been issued by Environment Canada......

Wednesday, June 28, 2006

Death toll at 9 in east coast floods
Two more deaths were added to the growing total from severe flooding from the Carolinas to Ontario. The latest flood deaths were along a stretch of I-88 near Binghampton, NY. Yesterdays rains amounted to several more inches in the water logged northeast. In Kemptville 25mm fell, most of that in an afternoon deluge. Over 65mm fell in the Gatineau Hills and across the Laurentians.

More thunderstorms are developing this afternoon with the threat of more heavy rain a reality.
Flood warnings and watches remain in effect for portions of New England the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Tuesday, June 27, 2006

Tropical Rains continue along Atlantic Seaboard...

The heavy tropical rains that have inundated the US East Coast are now spreading into Ontario and Quebec. Heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms are lining up across eastern Ontario at this hour. The area can expect up to 50mm of rain this afternoon and tonight.

More is on the way.....the rain has flood watches and warning stretching from southern Quebec into Georgia. The DC area was hit hard yesterday with close to a foot of rain. Roads were washed away, trees toppled and basements flooded. The National Weather Service will be investigating low pressure southeast of the Outer Banks that could become a tropical depression at anytime. it will continue the endless southeast flow of warm and moist air into the Appalachians and eastern Canada.

Thursday, June 15, 2006

Post-Tropical Alberto
batters Nova Scotia

Here is the latest update from Environment Canada....

WOCN31 CWHX 151800
Post-tropical storm Alberto information statement issued by the canadian hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.00 PM ADT Thursday 15 June 2006.
The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT
... The intense storm that formed from Alberto batters Nova Scotia...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion
At 3.00 PM ADT... Post-tropical storm Alberto was located near Latitude 42.6 N and longitude 63.9 W... About 120 nautical miles Or 220 km southeast of Yarmouth. Maximum sustained winds are Estimated at 55 knots... 102 km/h... And central pressure at 970 MB. Alberto is moving east northeast at 25 knots... 46 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength
Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Jun 15 3.00 PM 42.6N 63.9W 970 55 102 post-tropical
Jun 16 3.00 AM 45.4N 57.8W 976 55 102 post-tropical
Jun 16 3.00 PM 48.6N 51.8W 986 45 83 post-tropical
Jun 17 3.00 AM 52.0N 42.3W 990 40 74 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary Heavy rain and storm force winds continue buffeting portions of Nova Scotia as the storm system passes by south of the province.
Rainfall accumulations in excess of 10 mm per hour were reported Over western Nova Scotia this morning while winds along the atlantic coast of western Nova Scotia were gusting to more than 100 km/h.
The atlantic storm prediction centre is maintaining wind and heavy rain warnings for portions of Nova Scotia and will be issuing a wind warning for portions of southern Newfoundland. Details can be found in the bulletins issued by the atlantic storm prediction centre.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary The atlantic storm prediction centre is maintaining storm and gale warnings for many maritime and Newfoundland marine areas and will Be extending the storm warnings to areas south of Newfoundland.
Details can be found in the bulletins issued by the atlantic storm prediction centre.

5. Technical discussion
A. Analysis
For continuity we are continuing to refer to this storm as post- tropical Alberto however it has no tropical chartacteristics left when looking at the satellite signature. It is simply a mature extratropical cyclone. The fact that it is this deep in June is Quite rare and likely owes its strength... In part... To the ripe ingredients that it ingested from Alberto overnight.
The storm continues deepening this afternoon with a central pressure In the low 970S at forecast time. The gem initialized too high...
As did other models... However all models recognize that an intense low is in maritime waters.
Dry air has wrapped around the low and significant convection has been evident for many hours just north of the low. Lightning continues being reported west of the low centre over the marine district.
B. Prognostic
The gem regional appears reasonable regarding the track and pressure Tendency for central pressure... Apart from initializing too high.
Between a good satellite and marine data fix on the low centre at 15Z and the gem prog we are content to maintain a similar track to what we issued earlier.
C. Public weather
Nova Scotia rainfall totals up to 17Z include 41 mm at Lunenburg and Western Head.. And 38 mm at Yarmouth. The strongest coastal winds Reported have been peak winds of 119 km/h at Baccaro Point...
Marginal hurricane force. We expect that 40-60 mm rainfall totals will have occurred by the time that this system is in the books.
D. Marine weather
Storm force winds at the Georges Bank buoy were reported well behind the storm so it continues deepening. Wave heights also reached 7 m At that location before they started dropping. A very tight gradient behind the storm is being exaccerbated by strong isallobarics so storm force winds should be expected both ahead of and behind this system for at least the next 12 hours.

Wednesday, June 14, 2006

Tropical Depression
Alberto hits Carolinas

The storm that was Alberto continues to hit the Tar Heal State with heavy rain and wind. Tornado and High Wind Warnings are in effect for the Outer Banks and most of Eastern North Carolina. Heavy flooding is being reported in parts of the state as over 8 inches of rain has fallen. The storm will move back out over the Atlantic tonight and will affect the Maratimes later tomorrow and Friday.

An update on the conditions expected in Canada follows from Environment Canada......

Post-tropical storm Alberto information statement issued by the canadian hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.00 PM ADT Wednesday 14 June 2006.

... Alberto now post-tropical...
Public weather impacts and warnings summary Inland warnings have not yet been issued for the Maritimes or Newfoundland...But they may be required for Thursday or Friday.
Heavy rain associated with post-tropical storm Alberto is expected To move into Nova Scotia on Thursday and Newfoundland on Friday.
While it is too early to warn of specific amounts similar storms In the past have given rainfalls in excess of 50 mm. The speed of this weather system and its proximity to the coast will play a large role in the rainfall amounts and this will continue to be monitored closely.
As in previous forecasts the current track would keep the stronger winds away from most inland regions of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland except for portions of the Avalon Peninsula on Friday.

Marine weather impacts and warnings summary Although Alberto is now a post-tropical system and has winds below gale strength it is expected that it will reintensify as a significant frontal low bringing gales through all southern waters Thursday or Friday.
Gale warnings issued by the atlantic storm prediction centre remain In effect for the Nova Scotia marine areas of Browns Bank.. Georges Bank.. Southwestern shore.. Lahave Bank.. West Scotian Slope..Eastern shore.. Sable.. East Scotian Slope.. Banquereau.. And Laurentian fan. Gale warnings will also likely be required for most southeastern Newfoundland waters on Friday.

Tuesday, June 13, 2006

Alberto Crosses Florida
Tropical Storm Alberto is in the process of crossing Florida this morning. The good news is that damage appears to be limited. The heavy rain has been beneficial for the state as they have been battling a series of grass fires of late. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Big Bend area of the west coast of Florida, while a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Daytona north towards the SouthCarolina border.

On Monday fears were that the storm would rapidly increase in strength, but luckily the storm stabilized. Evacuations were ordered in the low country along the west coast. Most of the weather is located along the eastern flank of the storm and is stretching from northeast Florida along the Georgia and Carolina coasts. Winds will gust in those areas over 50mph and 3-5 inches (75-150mm) of rain is possible along the track of the storm.

Alberto will brush Canadian waters later in the week. It looks like a rain maker for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

Monday, June 12, 2006

Alberto gaining strength


The centre of Tropical Storm Alberto is a little northwest of the forecast track and is now expected to hit the big bend area of Florida before moving along the Atlantic coast towards North Carolina. All interests along the southeast and Florida coasts should continue to monitor this storm. NOAA Recon have found winds near 70mph just to the east of the center, and Alberto could become a Hurricane later today. You just never know with these storms that is why they demand so much respect.

Alberto heads for Florida
As with the 2005 season, 2006's season has started early. An area of low pressure west of Cuba has moved into the Gulf of Mexico and become the first tropical system of the seaso. Alberto is a minimal tropical storm with 50mph winds this morning. While the storm will be a big rain maker for the Florida peninsula it is not expected to reach hurricane status at this time. The storm is forecast to drift across the state today and tonight before moving into the Atlantic Tuesday. It will then take aim at the Carolinas. At this time the worst of the weather may remain offshore for the Outer Banks.

I have just returned from two weeks on Hatteras Island in Avon, NC, so I am really hoping the dire predictions for this Hurricane season do not materialize. The island is 50 miles long by 1/2 mile wide and is 25 miles from the mainland. It has a rich history of storms, most recently Ophelia in 05 and Isabel in 03.

In any event rain and gusty winds are occurring across Florida's west coast this morning. Winds have already gusted to over 60mph in squalls along the coast. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the west coast of the state including Tampa Bay. More info can be found at

The next update will be around 4pm today......