Thursday, April 16, 2015

Cooler wet weather on the way for Ontario & Quebec

This is what is left of winter 2014/2015 in many parts of the city of Montreal. It amazes me every spring just how much people litter in the winter. Do they not think it will surface in the spring? I keep a a bag in my car, it takes a few seconds for each of us to put garbage where is belongs and avoid this mess each year. The highways are lined with it, especially near shopping malls.(ValleyWX)
The weather will be spectacular today with sunshine and warm high temperatures up to 17C (63F) in Montreal. L'Ile Perrot is currently -2C (28F) as we continue with the wild diurnal temperature swings. This is common in spring, but the difference from high to low this past Monday was truly amazing. The overnight low at my home was -0.4C (31F) reached around 6am. By 3pm in the afternoon the temperature had warmed all the way up to 25.6C (79F) here on L'Ile Perrot. You can do the math on that one, a remarkable warm-up in such a short period of time.

Not much snow left on the ground on a 26C April day in Montreal.
High pressure that has been in control of the weather for most of this week will slide off the east coast today with a warming southerly flow. A frontal boundary will arrive overnight with showers into Friday before some clearing late in the day. On Saturday more showers are possible as another weak disturbance moves across southern Quebec. The mild temperatures of this week will begin to cool by the weekend with an extended period of below normal weather expected next week. High temperatures will range from 10 to 12C (50 to 55F) with lows of 4 to 6C (40 to 43F) into next week. In addition to the cooler weather, there will be frequent periods of rain next week with perhaps some significant amounts.

Monday, April 13, 2015

The warmest weather of 2015 so far for Montreal

Warm air will stream northward from the southern US today giving Montreal its warmest day so far in 2015
After a spectacular Sunday across southern Quebec, we can expect the warmest day of 2015 so far in Montreal today. The last of the snow melted away from my backyard on Saturday about 48 hours ahead of 2014, only patches remain in the rest of my neighborhood. The temperature manged to reach 17C (63F) on Sunday, the mildest it has been in Montreal since back in November. Warm southerly winds today ahead of a cold front will help to increases temperatures rapidly to highs of 22C (72F) in Montreal. We are currently 0C (32F) on L'Ile Perrot, so that will be quite the climb today. Expect abundant sunshine but with increasing high clouds late in the day and very windy conditions developing, especially in the St. Lawrence Valley. Winds will increase out of the southwest up to 70km/h in Montreal by early evening.

The thickening clouds are in response to a cold front crossing the region late this evening. Some showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder are possible before skies begin to clear overnight. The low tonight will remain very mild near 10C (50F). The high temperature on Tuesday, with returning sunshine by afternoon, will be near 16C (60F). The balance of the week looks decent with mild temperatures and sunshine through Thursday. A frontal system will bring a return to clouds and showers by Friday, but temperatures will remain above the normal high of 11C (52F) through the period. I will stick to my prediction made last week that we have seen the last of the accumulating snow for 2015, my snow tires are coming off Wednesday.

Thursday, April 09, 2015

Much warmer weather on the way for Montreal

The snow that fell overnight in southern Quebec may be the last of the season. (ValleyWX)
The snow that fell here on L'Ile Perrot overnight may well have been the last of the season. That meandering front that has been with us all week will move north today as a strong warm front. Low pressure developing over Colorado will move northeast across the Great Lakes and north of Montreal. We can expect some sunshine early today through increasing clouds. Overnight expect rain to develop, which could be heavy at times. There may even be a rumble of thunder, a sure sigh of Spring! Temperatures will warm to 9C (49F) today and drop to 4C (39F) overnight. On Friday expect more rain and very windy but with mild temperatures near 14C (56F). Winds may gust in excess of 70km/h in the afternoon. The weekend at this time looks sunny with warming temperatures. The high Saturday will be 8C (48F) and Sunday 13C (55F). Peeking into Monday, more sunshine with a very pleasant high of 18C (65F). I can finally say goodbye to the remaining snow on my lawn!

The system bringing us the rain tonight has prompted a wide area of warnings from southern Ontario into western Quebec. Heavy rain is expected with perhaps as much as 50mm (2 inches) later today into Friday. The rain, along with melting snow and ice, may create some flooding problems in some localities. In addition to the rain, heavy wet snow and perhaps freezing rain is possible in northeast Quebec and northern New Brunswick. A winter storm watch is in effect for the regions north and east of the Saquenay region. 

In the central US the problem will be severe weather. Strong thunderstorms are likely from Oklahoma into Missouri and Illinois with the potential for large hail and isolated tornadoes. Thunderstorms are possible across a wide swath of the eastern US into southern Ontario today.

Monday, April 06, 2015

Spring weather on the horizon for Montreal

The newly constructed bulk carrier CWB Marquis was the first ship into the St. Lawrence Seaway system for 2015 on April 2. Unfortunately she ran aground due to ice just a few hours later near Beauharnois.

We are finally seeing in our future a marked pattern shift in the weather for Eastern Canada. As we all know, 2015 has seen one of the coldest starts to any year for many locations. The warmest temperature so far in 2015 at Trudeau Airport in Montreal has only been 12.8C (53F), recorded this past Friday. Of course that was followed just a few hours later by 5-10cm of snow across southern Quebec. Easter was windy and very cold, only reaching plus 1C (34F) in Montreal, well below the normal high of 9C (48F). Monday and the start of this week will be no better as we remain along a stalled frontal boundary separating much milder air to the south with the cold air damning over the St. Lawrence Valley and points north. It could have been much worse this weekend with very heavy snow, strong winds and bitter cold temperatures for April occurring over portions of northern Maine, Eastern Quebec and New Brunswick.

The bad news for Montreal is we are looking at an unsettled week as that front meanders back and forth across the valley. Temperatures will remain below normal with a mix of wet snow and rain at times. There will only be a little sunshine. The good news is that we see a major shift in the pattern allowing warmer more spring like weather to arrive by next Sunday. We should see lots of melting and the warmest temperatures of 2015 by Sunday into Monday next week Highs will reach 15C by next weekend.

The St. Lawrence Seaway opened to shipping last Thursday, April 2nd, about two weeks later than normal and the latest since 1997. As with the 2014 season, thick ice had delayed the opening and is currently causing further navigation problems. The Canadian Coast Guard is using no less than 5 ice breakers to try to clear the seaway of ice. It was not the best of openings as the first ship through the locks in St. Lambert only made it about 35km southwest of Montreal before an ice flow caused the ship to run aground early Friday. The newly built Canadian bulk carrier CWB Marquis encountered the ice near Beauharnois, Quebec, not far from my backyard here on L'Ile Perrot. Two tugs set the ship free several hours later after the Transportation Safety Board of Canada gave the all clear. The ice, more than three feet thick in places, is still breaking up on the St. Lawrence River and Great Lakes. Large ice flows will continue to be problematic for several more days at the very least.

Saturday, April 04, 2015

Spring to Winter in 12 hours

Snow blankets L'Ile Perrot this morning bringing a halt to our one day taste of Spring. (ValleyWX Photo)
It really did feel like spring Friday afternoon. I managed a long walk with Bella my 20 pound Terrier, with my jacket wide open, no gloves, no hat, Spring! The temperature, 13C (55F) at 4pm, snow melting, it was beautiful in the bright sunshine. This morning, not so much. The temperature has managed to slide a full 17 degrees to -4C (25F). The rain changed to snow around 3am and has accumulated 5-10cm across southern Quebec. Winds increased as well up to 40km/h making it feel much colder and actually blowing the snow around. It is just plain nasty out there with snow covered icy roads. There have been several accidents overnight and early this morning including one that has Highway 640 closed north of Montreal.

The snow should taper off by noon with clearing skies, but windy and chilly with a high just above freezing near 2C (36F). Overnight will partly cloudy with flurries and cold with and Easter morning low of -8C (18F). It will be a sunny and cold Easter with a high of only 1C (34F).

This same storm system has been responsible for major flooding across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys as well as tornadoes and hail. It has also produced heavy snow across the Eastern Townships of Quebec into northern New England and Atlantic Canada.

Friday, April 03, 2015

Snow for Easter Weekend

Special Weather Statement for snow for southern Quebec.
Winter Weather Advisory for snow: Adirondacks, Northeast Vermont.

The seasons will do battle this weekend as is typical in the volatile season of spring. There is plenty of energy available in the atmosphere from April through June, that is why we have so much severe weather in the central and southern plains of the US. Cold air remains in control of portions of central and far northern Canada while warm and humid air has started streaming northward form the Gulf of Mexico. This scenario will be all too clear in Montreal over the next 24 hours. We start this morning very mild at plus 6C (43F) with the prospect of our warmest day since early November. With some sunshine through thickening clouds we may reach 14C (56F) in Montreal and Ottawa.

A strong cold front will move across the region late this evening stalling to our south separating the warm air from unseasonably cold air that will become our reality for this weekend. The temperature will crash from today's warm highs down to -3C (27F) overnight. Low pressure will develop and move along the front with rain developing this evening and changing to snow overnight in Montreal. Wet snow is likely Saturday with a cold high of only 2C (36F). The heaviest snow will fall south and east of Montreal with 10-15cm in Sherbrooke and northeast Vermont. From Montreal east to Quebec City we can expect 5-10cm with 2-4cm for the Ottawa Valley and eastern Ontario. The snow will taper off Saturday but it will be a raw and chilly day. Temperatures will be cold Saturday night with lows of -7C (19F). Easter Sunday will be partly sunny and cold with a high of only 2C (36F).

Looking ahead to next week, it remains unsettled and cold for early April with the chance for more snow. The good news is we see some above normal temperatures finally by the middle of this month so don`t loose hope.

Wednesday, April 01, 2015

April Fools forecast - Easter snowstorm?

We just can't shake the winter blues. The snow is melting, ever so slowly. The average temperatures are creeping up, ever so slowly, and lastly the sunshine is growing stronger. But that nasty morning chill just won't leave us. On Wednesday morning we managed a low of -10.6C (13F) here on L'Ile Perrot, well below the normal of -2C (28F). If we manage to squeeze out a plus 2 or 3C (36 to 38F) today for a high it will still be below the normal of 7C (45F). Such has been the case through the early portion of Spring 2015 in Montreal. High pressure will dominate today before the weather becomes very active Thursday and into the Easter holiday weekend.

A warm front will advance into southern Ontario and Quebec on Thursday into Friday with a period of light rain or even some spotty freezing rain followed by showers and very mild temperatures on Friday. We may see double digit highs on Friday of 10 to 14C (50 to 56F) across eastern Ontario and Quebec. Friday night a strong cold front will sweep the St. Lawrence Valley with rapidly dropping temperatures down to -4C (25F) by Saturday morning. At the same time low pressure will develop and move along that front south of Montreal spreading snow into the region. So after a warm high of 12 or 14 on Friday the temperature will plunge to well below freezing. At this time Saturday looks windy and cold with a high of only -3C (27F) and snow. Early estimates are for 5-10cm for southern Quebec but that amount could change either way depending on the eventual development and track of storm system.