Thursday, January 29, 2015

"Mini storm" to affect southern Quebec & Ontario

Special Weather Statement posted for most of eastern Ontario and portions of southern Quebec for snow and blowing snow. Winter Weather Advisory for the St. Lawrence Valley of New York and northern Champlain Valley of NY & Vermont. No warnings yet for Montreal but it will be an "advisory" type snowfall if Environment Canada used such terminology.

The Details...
Low pressure will move from the Great Lakes today down the St. Lawrence Valley bringing snow and blowing snow to Montreal, Ottawa and Quebec City starting late today and lasting into Friday. The storm is rather disorganized in nature but will still bring us more snow than we have seen at any other time in January. We start the day at -20C (-4F) on L'Ile Perrot, clear and cold once again, a theme that has been replayed countless times this January. Clouds will increase today with snow developing by late afternoon from Kingston to Cornwall before moving into Montreal by the evening commute. Once it starts it will snow steadily until noon or so Friday. Expect a good 10cm (4 inches) in most locations with 15cm (6 inches) right along the St. Lawrence River, including metro Montreal. Temperatures will warm today to -4C (25F) and up to -1C (30F) early Friday morning, before an arctic front plunges the temperature down to -13C (9F) by days end. It will turn windy as well Friday, gusting up to 50km/h causing blowing snow in Ontario and Quebec. Driving may be challenging at times. Skies will slowly clear Friday night setting up a sunny but very cold weekend. Lows will be near -22C (-8F) with highs no better than -13C (9F).

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Storm ends for New England - snow for Montreal Thursday

A car is buried under nearly 30 inches of snow in Hampton Beach, New Hampshire on Tuesday. (Seacoast Online Photo)
A strong coastal storm produced record amounts of snow across eastern coastal New England on Wednesday with nearly 24 inches in Boston and a whopping 34.5 inches in Worcester, Massachusetts, their biggest one day storm ever. The system also produced heavy snow across Atlantic Canada with over 35cm in Moncton and blizzard conditions for hours. Winds were very strong, approaching hurricane force along the New England coast and driving a huge amount of ocean water and waves into the shoreline. Flooding and damage was reported south of Boston in Scituate and Marshfield among other locations. The collapse of a seawall in Marshfield during the height of the storm, damaged several homes with injuries reported. The National Guard was forced to carry out evacuations in some towns. The strong winds also knocked out power to thousands especially in Cape Cod and the islands. Heavy snow also hit New Hampshire and Maine with close to 30 inches in Hampton.

Pounding waves caused damage to many homes in Marshfield, Mass. (via Twitter @KarenWBZradio)
The snow worked its way inland but tapered off quickly with only light amounts across northern Vermont and portions of southern Quebec. The snow got as close as the south shore of Montreal, but no accumulations were reported in the city or here on L'Ile Perrot.

Looking ahead we can expect clearing skies today across the region, but it will be cold, only -10C (14F). Clear skies tonight with a low of -14C (6F) will give way to increasing clouds on Thursday as the next low pressure area approaches form the Great Lakes. It will be milder Thursday with a high of -6C (21F). We can expect snow to start late in the day in eastern Ontario and spread into Quebec by the evening commute. Steady snow and gusty winds are likely into Friday morning with a good 10cm (4 inches) expected in Montreal and Ottawa. It will turn cold again for the weekend with another shot at measurable snow by Monday. More on that as the week progresses.

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Nor'Easter slams Boston but spares NYC & Montreal

A classic, spectacular image of the east coast storm from space. Clouds as far back as Montreal with a cold front trailing into the Caribbean Sea and dry air in the middle working its way into Nova Scotia.
After a media frenzy in New York City on Monday, and the eventual shutdown of that cities subway system for the first time in its history, it appears the storm will spare NYC. Airlines cancelled thousands of flights today in and out of the Big Apple in preparation for the onslaught forecast. The problem is, snowstorms are very difficult to pin down, especially coastal systems. Determining where the heaviest snow will set up is always a challenge. This storm did develop as expected and it very strong this morning, southeast of the Massachusetts coastline. But the heaviest snow spared New York City and is pounding eastern Long Island, as well as southern New England including Boston.

No cars and no snow for the Big Apple this morning. (Sun Sentinel)
This classic northeaster that looks like a storm out of a textbook is dealing a heavy blow to coastal communities in Massachusetts. Overnight 20 foot seas pounded the region with flooding reported in places like Plymouth and Scituate. Winds gusting to near hurricane force of 75mph hit Nantucket Island as well as coastal areas into Maine into Nova Scotia. Around 11 inches of snow has been reported in Boston and it is still snowing heavily in that city. Inland in southern New Hampshire, Connecticut and Massachusetts as much as 16 inches has been reported with two feet still forecast. Further north in Atlantic Canada, blizzard warnings are in effect with the region virtually shut down today. All flights have been cancelled and schools are closed with 30cm of wind driven snow expected.

In Quebec, any snow expected is sill limited to the border regions as well as the Gaspe where warnings are posted. Only 1cm or 2 is forecast for Montreal. Strong winds will funnel down the St. Lawrence Valley with gusts to 90km/h forecast in Quebec City, and already approaching 60km/h in Montreal. It is very cold in Montreal this morning with windchill readings around -26C. (-15F). The high will only be -11C, windy, cold and flurries.

Monday, January 26, 2015

Strong Nor'Easter to hammer east coast - brush Quebec

Long Island Expressway in New York this afternoon (via Twitter WPXI)
 5pm EST Update...
A powerful and perhaps historic Nor'Easter is developing this afternoon off the coast of North Carolina and is expected to move towards Cape Cod on Tuesday. Rapid intensification is expected with a 40-50 millibar pressure drop in less than 24 hours forecast. Heavy snow is already falling well in advance of the main storm across southern New England and metro New York City. Forecast blizzard conditions are expected overnight with accumulations reaching 12-24 inches and even up to 36" from metro NYC northeast into Massachusetts. Strong winds are forecast up to 65mph. Coastal flooding is also a big concern with warnings now posted. Thousands of flights have been cancelled already in northeast hubs with the prospect of a complete shutdown Tuesday in New York and Boston. A travel ban has been declared in Massachusetts for Tuesday. This storm could rival the historic Blizzard of 78. Away from the coast heavy snow is forecast northward into central Vermont and New Hampshire. Blizzard conditions are also forecast for New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and P.E.I. Heavy snow will fall along the Gaspe coast of Quebec.

Latest forecast amounts as of 3:30pm Monday

Effects in Quebec
In southern Quebec strong northeast winds will develop on Tuesday gusting from 60km/h in metro Montreal up to 90km/h in Quebec City where warnings are in effect. Windchill values will be very cold with a high of only -11C expected and windchill readings down in the minus 20's. As far as snow goes, we are looking at 5cm for Montreal tomorrow evening, and upwards of 10-15cm for the Townships into the Beauce. Blowing snow will greatly reduce visibility in and east of Quebec City Tuesday night.

Wicked winter storm to pound New England & New York

Montreal, once again, will remain on the western edge of a coastal snowstorm.
There is plenty of weather to talk about this morning so let's get right into it. First it is another cold morning in Montreal, but very calm. The current temperature at my home on L'Ile Perrot is -25C (-13F). Montreal can expect sunshine today with a high near -12C. Yesterday was cold in the east but record warmth occurred across western Canada. Dozens of new record highs were established including 17.2C (63F) in Calagry and 9.6C (49F) in Edmonton. On the east coast what was left of the first snowstorm to affect Atlantic Canada produced winds in excess of 150km/h in Newfoundland. That same storm brought 15-30cm of snow over the weekend to most of Atlantic Canada.

Powerful Historic Nor'Easter
That brings us to the current storm, a weak, unsuspecting area of low pressure meandering across the Ohio Valley this morning. That system will move off the middle Atlantic coast today and explode into a powerful Nor'Easter. The storm will then slowly move northeast towards Nova Scotia over the next 48 hours. With arctic air in place, copious amounts of Atlantic moisture will be drawn into New York and New England producing historic snowfalls in some locations. The computer models are indicating 2 to 3 feet (60-90cm) of snow in a swath from metro New York and New Jersey into central Massachusetts. In addition to the snow, strong winds will gust to hurricane force along the coast and perhaps 50mph inland. Visibility will be nil in snow and blowing snow with travel nearly impossible on Tuesday. Coastal flooding will also impact the region especially along the flood prone Massachusetts and New Hampshire coasts. With blizzard conditions forecast, expect major travel delays anywhere along the east coast on Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday. The storm will also impact interior portions of New England, Quebec and Atlantic Canada with 15-30cm of wind whipped snow.

At this time, the St. Lawrence Valley and Montreal are expected to remain on the western edge of the storm with a cold northeast wind to 60km/h as well as a few flurries. Snowfall amounts in the city will be light as high pressure over us will limit mositure. As you move south and east towards Sherbrooke and Vermont, snow amounts will increase to between 5-15cm. Beyond the border area it just keeps getting deeper as you head south and east. I strongly recommend postponing any travel plans that take you into New England or east into portions of the Gaspe or the Maritimes Tuesday.

Sunday, January 25, 2015

New Nor'easter threatens east coast - may miss Montreal

A major storm will impact New England and eastern Canada this week. (AccuWeather)
Just 24 hours after telling you all things looked quiet for Montreal for the next week, it appears a new east coast storm will edge further westward into southern and eastern Quebec on Tuesday. Let's start with yesterday's storm that completely missed Montreal but left 15-30cm of snow from New Jersey into New Brunswick. As the storm bombed out overnight east of Nova Scotia winds picked up as well gusting to nearly 80km/h in Halifax. Montreal received about 1cm of snow last evening from an arctic cold front, as well as a few hours of freezing drizzle in advance of the front. The temperatures were mild on Saturday in Montreal at 0C (32F) but have since dropped to the current reading here on L'Ile Perrot of -15C (5F). It will be sunny but cold today and Monday with highs near -11C (12F) in Montreal.

Montreal will remain right on the edge of the precipitation shield with perhaps 5cm of snow on Tuesday. It will be windy and cold.
NEW Nor'Easter
A new clipper-type low pressure system will be moving from the Prairies across the Ohio Valley on Monday and off the coast of Virginia by late in the day. It will then strengthen and is forecast to become a powerful Nor'Easter that will make news as it moves towards Nova Scotia by Wednesday. Just 36 hours ago the models had this storm system passing well out to sea. But now it is expected to move much closer to the coast and provide all of New England and eastern Canada with a major storm. Some portions of the coastal regions from New York to Atlantic Canada could see 30-60cm (1-2 feet) of snow. Winds are forecast to howl over 100km/h (60 mph) with the snow on Tuesday causing blizzard conditions in Boston and New York City. High surf may cause coastal flooding for New England and Nova Scotia. This storm will be strengthening as it slowly moves northeast along the coast. Winds are forecast to increase out of the northeast on Tuesday in Montreal (over 50km/h) and the rest of southern Quebec as well. We can now expect some snow on Tuesday, but the bulk of the accumulations will be well south and east of Montreal. I expect perhaps 5cm (2 inches) for Montreal, more for the Townships and Quebec City, but this will have to be watched closely as there remains much uncertainty with the exact track. Travel will be very difficult to impossible in eastern Quebec, New Brunswick, P.E.I, portions of Nova Scotia as well as New England, so if you have plans Tuesday pay close attention to later forecasts. So far in our region, a Winter Storm Watch is in effect for southern Vermont as well as a Special Weather Statement for Atlantic Canada.

Saturday, January 24, 2015

Another coastal miss for Montreal - cold week ahead

Heavy snow is falling this morning from New Jersey (above) into coastal New England. For many it i the first snow of the season.(Photo via Twitter @justinhfd126)
In what has been an all too familiar pattern this winter, another coastal storm will pass by southern Quebec to the southeast and move into Atlantic Canada Sunday. Low pressure east of New Jersey this morning will deepen rapidly as it lifts towards Nova Scotia tonight. Heavy wet snow and rain along with strong winds are occurring from the middle Atlantic region towards eastern Massachusetts this morning. The snow will spread into Maine and eventually New Brunswick later this afternoon. Decent amounts of snow are forecast in a narrow band with 15-30cm (6-12 inches) expected from New England into New Brunswick. There is a sharp cutoff of precipitation west of the storm track with just light snow across southern New Hampshire and Vermont. As the storm deepens rapidly tonight, winds will increase along the coast with some coastal flooding possible. The snow, and rain for Nova Scotia, will spread into Newfoundland on Sunday. A wide range of warnings are in effect including a winter storm warning for the Gaspe region of Quebec as well as the lower north shore. Winds will gust over 100km/h in eastern Quebec with the snow.

Meanwhile an arctic cold front will bring an end to the mild temperatures in Ontario and Quebec. Montreal was 0C (32F) Friday and can expect a high of -1C (30F) today under cloudy skies. The cold front will cross the region late this afternoon and this evening with some light snow possible. At best 1-3cm may fall locally across southern Quebec and eastern Ontario. Temperatures will fall quickly overnight under gusty northwest winds of 20-40km/h, down to -14C (7F), along with cold wind chill values. Sunshine returns Sunday, but it will be breezy and cold. For most of this upcoming week arctic high pressure remains in control, temperatures will be cold with lows around -18C (0F) and highs no better than -10C (14F). The next chance for snow in Montreal will come along yet another arctic front late in the week.

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Big snow in Labrador - calm & cold for Montreal

Heavy snow buried Labrador City and Wabush Tuesday and Wednesday halting all travel. (The Weather Network)
The weather is tranquil in southern Quebec, but cold this morning. We have another -20C (-4F) morning on L'Ile Perrot, but I must be getting acclimatized because it did not feel that cold walking the dog. Winds are light, expect sunshine today with some passing clouds and a high temperature near -10C (14F) in metro Montreal. High pressure remains in control into early Friday before a weak trough of low pressure brings us some very light snow Friday evening into Saturday morning. Skies will clear for the weekend with a mild Saturday followed by more cold weather for Sunday and into next week. The cold weather will be with us through the end of January and into February looking at the long term prospects. No major storms are expected at this time in Montreal or eastern Ontario through next week.

A winter storm will affect New York and Boston this weekend northeast into Atlantic Canada, but miss southern Quebec.
The storm track has been deflected further south into the middle Atlantic states. Low pressure this weekend will bring a swathe of 15-30cm (6-12 inches) snowfall from West Virginia into Atlantic Canada. It could be the first big snowfall of the season for places like New York and Boston. At this time the storm will stay well south of Quebec with no impacts expected.

Labrador Blizzard
The storm that affected southern Quebec on Monday with snow and rain strengthened and brought a fierce winter storm to Labrador and western Newfoundland. Nearly 80cm of snow fell in Wabush with businesses and schools closed across western Labrador. Travel and any form of transportation was nearly impossible with winds gusting over 70km/h. Temperatures are frigid behind the storm with -43C this morning in Labrador City. The region now has over 150cm (60 inches) of snow on the ground in many places. Roads between Wabush and Churchill Falls were closed Tuesday but reopened Wednesday despite less than ideal conditions. It will remain frigid this weekend.